48 quotes
Most of the time the crises lead to pretty dire consequences, but there is about 10-15% of cases where the elites manage to pull together, adopt the right set of reforms, and sail the ship of the state through the turbulent waters without major bloodshed.
Human environment across time (2023)
Then... the wages stagnated, or even declined. So what was the reason?
Human environment across time (2023)
[T]he "crude" Malthusian explanation, which connects popular immiseration to social breakdown, fails to account both for the start and end of the "Time of Troubles."
Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected... the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability.
It became clear... through quantitative historical analysis that [throughout time] complex societies everywhere are affected by recurrent and, to a... degree, predictable waves of political instability, brought about by the same basic set of forces...
End Times (2023)
SDT can be... an explicit computational model capable of forecasting future... social unrest and political violence in specific social systems.
Not all of these candidates are wealthy in their own right. Many of the newly wealthy... instead of running themselves... fund other individuals.
Human environment across time (2023)
A group consisting entirely of self-regarding agents will never be able to cooperate. So cooperation is possible only if some agents are motivated by ‘extra-rational’ prosocial norms, including the norm of moralistic punishment.
We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave... This could mean that future recessions will be severe.
We need to find ways to ameliorate the negative effects of globalization... Economic inequality, accompanied by burgeoning public debt, can be addressed by making tax rates more progressive.
GDP per capita shows no break in the 1970s. It slowed down... around the financial crisis of 2007–2008...
Human environment across time (2023)
[E]ssentially the effect of increasing the number of wealth holders is translated into increased competition for political positions.
Human environment across time (2023)
Many of the historical "Golden Ages" were... golden... only for the elites, whose high levels of consumption were based on low real wages and falling consumption levels of the great majority...
[T]here are other dimensions. The state fragility and international environment, especially for smaller countries, international environment plays quite a role, but I will focus on the first two.
Human environment across time (2023)
The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability... which could undermine... scientific progress...
[G]rowing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, political, and cultural.
[N]one of the fundamental structural-demographic drivers have been reversed, so far. Thus, the American social system continues to be very vulnerable to additional "quakes".
[S]ocieties have arrived at this crossroads before, and though... most of the time...the road has led to great loss of life and societal breakdown, sometimes it has led to a far happier resolution ...
End Times (2023)
Many of the wealth holders... aim to translate their economic power into political power... [A]nother measure is the cost of winning ...has been growing also, showing a greater demand for these positions and greater willingness to spend money...
Human environment across time (2023)
Specific triggers... are difficult, perhaps... impossible to predict. ...[S]tructural pressures build up slowly and more predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting.