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born 1957 United States
Peter Valentinovich Turchin (born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution.
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Structural-demographic theory (SDT) offers a... wholistic framework for investigating such... forces that... lead to revolutions, civil wars, and other major outbreaks of socio-political instability.
Cliodynamics... uses the methods of data science, treating the historical record... as Big Data. It employs mathematical models to trace the intricate web of interactions...
End Times (2023)
[M]y colleagues and I... focused on cycles of political integration and disintegration, particularly on state formation and state collapse.
End Times (2023)
[T]here are important recurring patterns... throughout... human history over the past ten thousand years.
End Times (2023)
Structural-demographic theory... was proposed by Jack Goldstone and further developed and tested by... investigators, including [S.] Nefedov, Turchin, [and] Korotayev et al.
This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010.
What about elite overproduction? ...By elites I mean the small percentage of population that concentrates social power in their hands. ...[I]t's a neutral definition. It's neither good nor bad. They're simply power holders.
Human environment across time (2023)
There are multiple lines of evidence that show that the influence from the Soviet Union... By the way, also from Nazi Germany during the 1930s. Those were, in fact, important influences on the Roosevelt administration in... designing an equitable system.
Human environment across time (2023)
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