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Specific triggers... are difficult, perhaps... impossible to predict. ...[S]tructural pressures build up slowly and more predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting.

— Peter Turchin

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More quotes by Peter Turchin

It really is a very coherent understanding of these problems.

Human environment across time (2023)

Can we model and forecast the dynamics of social resilience and its opposite, social breakdown?

How resilient are our societies to internal and external shocks?

SDT is a general theory that guides our understanding of political violence dynamics and social breakdown in all large-scale state-level societies.

In the late 1970s there was a definite phase transition.

Human environment across time (2023)

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Quote text and notes from Wikiquote: Peter Turchin (page history), available under CC BY-SA 4.0. Source quality and labels are our own summary of what Wikiquote records.