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Probability was only invented a few hundred years ago. It's not a natural way to think at all. It's extremely difficult and complex. Anything that can help people do it, is of benefit.

— David Spiegelhalter Micromorts and microlives (2013)

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More quotes by David Spiegelhalter

We need to think slow instead of fast, and resist drawing causal links between events where none may exist.

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots (2021)

A lot of the communication now is using absolute risk, which is a huge improvement.

Understanding Risk (2020)

Life-expectancy reduced by 1 year = about 30 minutes off your life expectancy for each day with the habit = 1 Microlife

Micromorts and microlives (2013)

It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present...

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots (2021)

Relative risks are very valuable in... low probability, high impact events.

Understanding Risk (2020)

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Quote text and notes from Wikiquote: David Spiegelhalter (page history), available under CC BY-SA 4.0. Source quality and labels are our own summary of what Wikiquote records.