There is little warrant for the belief that we know the laws of history well enough to make projections of any great reliability. Most of the turning points of history, great and small, were surprises to both their participants and the analysts of the day, whatever their doctrine.

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Quote text and notes from Wikiquote: Kenneth Arrow (page history), available under CC BY-SA 4.0. Source quality and labels are our own summary of what Wikiquote records.