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Quotes from Understanding Uncertainty — Dennis Lindley

1923–2013

← All quotes by Dennis Lindley

12 quotes

Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

The grand assertion is that you must see the world through probability and that probability is the only guide you need.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Utility is the emotion pleading to be let into the house of pure reason and thereby enriching it.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

In teaching there can be too much emphasis on certainty and a proper appreciation of uncertainty is to be encouraged.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Consider the case of a person who holds a view with probability 1. Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because nothing will change their mind.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Generally there is Stigler’s law of eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person; in particular, the law is not due to Stigler.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

It is not merely a question of calculating with probabilities but also one of relating the ingredients of your probability statements to reality. You do not need to think only about p(E|K) but also about the precise nature of E and K.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe anything on the authority of a single person but seek confirmation — and reason is the best confirmation.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty.

Understanding Uncertainty (2006)

Attribution

Quotes and notes from Wikiquote: Dennis Lindley (page history), available under CC BY-SA 4.0.